I am an analyst who has worked on both the buy-side and the sell-side. I am naturally inquiring person. I don’t leap to conclusions and after studying the facts I have reached the conclusion that Trump’s firing of Erika McEntarfer was justified.
US labor stats have been bogus for a few years. Every time there was a stat print, it seemed dubious. The large original prints seemed to frequently be around political-related events, only to have material negative revisions afterward.
Eventually, this kind of stuff just comes out in the wash, but often not until after certain events that could be influenced by the correct information.
I’ve spoken to numerous bankers/traders/salespeople/analysts about this, and most of them are of the same opinion. When looking at various economic data, many of the variables have certain correlations with others. When one zigs a certain amount, a closely-connected variable tends to zig relatively closely, or zag, depending on positive versus negative correlation. Yes, there could be an anomaly, but anomalies tend to revert to normal over time. When a variable is not consistently not tracking, it should be a major flag for deeper analysis. It suggests that something might not be correct.
McEntarfer didn’t seem to this and so had to go. She wasn’t an objective data provider. The fluctuations and revisions often seemed particularly large in government employment data, which is easier to manipulate.
It’s not relevant to suggest that Trump’s treatment of her is somehow unfair because he accepted inflation data provided by her department. People can more readily see and experience inflation pressures, making those stats less susceptible to manipulation than the labor stats.
Albert York is a pseudonym
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